证券行业2019年报＆2020年一季报前瞻：19年业绩近翻倍20年短期扰动不改龙头逻辑-20200301-中银国际-22页.pdf
| 2020 3 1 Table_IndustryRank Table_relatedreport 1 20200224 20200218 20200216 Table_Industr y Table_Anal yser 86106622-9085 S1300511040003 * Table _Title 2019 2020 19 20 19 85 20 2019 85 2019 300 36.07 43.79 II 46.25 19 5,580 35.45 133 19 3,604.83 35.37 1,230.95 84.77 ROE 9 3 34 6.3 1 19 1,221.6 52.65 30 34 2 35 2019 463.66 115.81 13 3 19 IPO 84 30 482.65 30.46 4 19 787.63 26.34 2020 A 2020 0.69 19.56 39.27 2020 0.77 23.88 1 Beta 2 2019 每 日 免 费 获 取 报 告 1、每日微信群内分享 7 最新重磅报告； 2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报； 3、每周分享经济学人 4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者 所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。 扫一扫二维码 关注公号 回复研究报告 加入“起点财经” 微信群。。 2020 3 1 2019 2020 2 1 2019 ROE 1.1 2019 2019 2019 300 36.07 43.79 II 46.25 1. 2019 300 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2019/01/02 2019/01/16 2019/01/30 2019/02/13 2019/02/27 2019/03/13 2019/03/27 2019/04/10 2019/04/24 2019/05/08 2019/05/22 2019/06/05 2019/06/19 2019/07/03 2019/07/17 2019/07/31 2019/08/14 2019/08/28 2019/09/11 2019/09/25 2019/10/09 2019/10/23 2019/11/06 2019/11/20 2019/12/04 2019/12/18 300 19 19 18 1 19 5,580 18 4,120 35.45 2 19 2.44 18 2.19 11.50 2. 2018/01-2019/12 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2018-01 2018-02 2018-03 2018-04 2018-05 2018-06 2018-07 2018-08 2018-09 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 18 4120 19 5580 35 mNpMrPzQnMpPtMmPrOrNpOaQdN8OsQnNtRmMlOpPpMjMmMoM9PmOtQvPnOqPNZtOoQ 2020 3 1 2019 2020 3 3. 2018/01-2019/12 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2018-01 2018-02 2018-03 2018-04 2018-05 2018-06 2018-07 2018-08 2018-09 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 18 2.19 19 2.44 12 1.2 2019 1,231 85 35.37 2019 1 133 3,604.83 35.37 2 116 53 30 26 0.1 3 34 22 13 13 8 4 5 4. 2018vs2019 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2018 2019 30 0.1 53 116 -1 26 2020 3 1 2019 2020 4 5. 2012-2019 39 48 40 47 32 26 23 22 16 11 12 9 21 16 14 13 2 4 5 5 9 10 10 8 22 19 27 25 17 28 30 34 4 12 17 10 12 11 8 13 16 6 -1 4 9 8 14 10 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 84.77 34.1 1 133 2019 1,230.95 84.77 2 2019 34.1 2018 25.0 9 2015 42.6 ROE ROE 2019 ROE 6.30 2018 2.73 ROE 6.2012- 2019 25.4 27.6 37.1 42.6 37.6 36.3 25.0 34.1 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 1 2019 2020 5 7. 2014-2019 ROE 1.3 2019 2019 2 28 39 2019 1 85 122.88 2 39 100 21 500 2020 3 1 2019 2020 6 8. 2019 39 2019 2019 600030.SH 122.88 30.86 600837.SH 93.8-96.9 80-86 601688.SH 85.6-93.1 70-85 601211.SH 86.26 28.59 000776.SZ 71.6-75.9 66.5-76.5 600999.SH 70.8-75.2 60-70 601066.SH 55.02 78.19 601881.SH 51.18 77.27 002736.SZ 49.24 43.83 600061.SH 28.6-31.3 70-86 600958.SH 23.5-25 90.9-103.1 600958.SH 24.13 96.03 601108.SH 18.60 127.17 000783.SZ 17.1-17.1 563.3-563.3 601377.SH 15-18 1008.3-1229.9 002926.SZ 14.43 70.72 002926.SZ 13.6-15.2 61-80 600909.SH 11.1-12.2 100-120 601555.SH 10-11 179-206.9 600369.SH 10.1-10.8 345-375 000686.SZ 10.05 233.63 002939.SZ 9.92 69.40 601901.SH 8.3-11.6 25-75 601878.SH 9.75 32.27 002939.SZ 9.1-10.2 56-75 000728.SZ 9.17 36.80 601236.SH 8.2-8.6 112-123 601696.SH 7.5-7.9 5.5-11.1 601990.SH 6.7-7.5 189.1-223.6 002673.SZ 6.22 210.14 002673.SZ 5.9-6.5 194.4-225.3 601788.SH 5.5-5.5 435.7-435.7 002797.SZ 5.13 312.58 002500.SZ 5.11 130.20 000750.SZ 4.96 578.63 002500.SZ 4.7-5.2 111.9-134.5 601099.SH 4.4-5.3 133.3-139.9 002945.SZ 4.3-4.5 25.3-31.1 601162.SH 2.5-3.5 -17.5-15.6 2018 2019 2019 CR11 64 2018 73 9 2020 3 1 2019 2020 7 9. 2014-2019Q3 59 57 58 65 73 64 50 55 60 65 70 75 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Q3 2020 3 1 2019 2020 8 2 2.1 52.65 52.65 2019 A 2019 133 1221.6 2018 800.27 52.65 2015 1413.54 2019 18 4 34 19 30 31.99 26.30 82.21 10. IPO 2019 12 31 2019 0.26 0.88 237.02 0.40 1.27 217.89 1.40 4.36 211.30 0.60 1.84 206.20 0.19 0.45 136.68 1.09 2.48 126.67 1.02 2.08 104.09 2.27 4.62 103.75 0.98 1.94 97.62 3.82 7.48 95.75 1.79 3.49 95.11 0.36 0.66 81.10 3.28 5.78 76.31 1.00 1.70 70.50 2.55 4.32 69.43 0.29 0.49 66.61 0.40 0.66 65.58 1.44 2.32 60.94 0.25 0.40 57.55 1.27 1.95 52.77 3.24 4.41 36.22 0.63 0.84 33.66 0.31 0.40 28.53 0.40 0.50 26.11 0.21 0.25 18.29 0.69 0.82 18.29 0.31 0.34 9.68 0.60 0.66 9.36 0.40 0.41 1.54 0.52 0.49 4.96 31.99 58.29 82.21 2020 3 1 2019 2020 9 2019 133 2.02 2018 6.88 2.16 2019 38 1.52 2018 1.42 6.70 11. 2013-2019 12. 2019 38 0.75 0.92 1.45 1.64 1.85 1.89 2.02 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.42 1.52 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.52 1.54 2018 2019 6.70 2.2 2019 2019 950 1,600 A 80bp “ ” 19 7,557 10,193 34.88 2019 2018 II PB 1 19Q1 19 4.5 13. 2018/01-2019/12 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 2018-01 2018-02 2018-03 2018-04 2018-05 2018-06 2018-07 2018-08 2018-09 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 -26 35 2020 3 1 2019 2020 10 14. 2018/01-2019/12 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 2018-01 2018-02 2018-03 2018-04 2018-05 2018-06 2018-07 2018-08 2018-09 2018-10 2018-11 2018-12 2019-01 2019-02 2019-03 2019-04 2019-05 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 -34 31 -17 2019 935.51 12.83 676.49 662.15 9.28 9.08 15. 2019 12 31 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 19 2019 463.66 115.81 12.86 2.3 IPO IPO 84 2019 15,330 19.07 IPO 2,533 84.19 8 A IPO IPO A 19 6,937 8.19 20 30 2019 ABS 4.68 30.14 2016 4.06 2019 133 482.65 30.46 2020 3 1 2019 2020 11 16. 2012-2019 17. 2012-2019 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IPO IPO -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2018 9,470.33 6.04 2019 1,288 13.60 10.10 9.50 2019 IPO 453.08 17.88 IPO 2019 3,589 51.46 2.54 54.28 ABS 1.77 3.87 ABS 10.77 10.13 18. 2012-2019 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ABS 2020 3 1 2019 2020 12 19. 2019 IPO IPO 13.60 28 24 1 53 453.08 826.16 8.30 1287.54 10.10 6 29 0 35 67.20 889.21 0.00 956.40 9.50 22 31 0 53 175.73 724.07 0.00 899.80 6.64 3 7 0 10 13.40 614.96 0.00 628.36 4.64 10 12 0 22 74.59 364.77 0.00 439.36 3.72 8 3 0 11 73.87 278.89 0.00 352.77 3.61 12 6 1 19 141.96 196.01 4.05 342.03 3.30 16 9 1 26 89.60 212.35 10.22 312.16 2.50 13 9 1 23 84.08 113.98 38.75 236.82 2.01 5 9 1 15 34.78 117.62 38.28 190.69 1.62 2 5 0 7 24.83 128.67 0.00 153.50 1.40 5 7 0 12 28.76 103.72 0.00 132.48 1.39 3 4 0 7 17.49 113.81 0.00 131.30 1.19 9 6 0 15 67.43 45.08 0.00 112.51 0.97 1 3 0 4 3.13 88.32 0.00 91.44 0.85 2 11 0 13 9.07 71.36 0.00 80.42 0.85 3 8 0 11 31.34 48.78 0.00 80.12 0.82 2 3 0 5 15.30 61.97 0.00 77.27 0.66 3 2 0 5 31.34 31.57 0.00 62.90 0.54 6 4 0 10 42.73 8.72 0.00 51.45 0.49 5 5 2 12 21.58 15.93 9.35 46.86 0.47 2 4 0 6 10.44 34.05 0.00 44.48 0.35 2 3 0 5 13.92 18.95 0.00 32.87 0.34 3 4 0 7 20.31 11.86 0.00 32.17 0.33 2 2 0 4 15.05 16.40 0.00 31.45 0.28 1 2 0 3 9.69 16.50 0.00 26.19 0.06 1 1 0 2 3.82 2.00 0.00 5.82 0.23 1 2 0 3 5.49 16.60 0.00 22.09 0.19 1 0 0 1 17.55 0.00 0.00 17.55 0.18 2 3 0 5 7.78 9.67 0.00 17.45 0.18 2 2 0 4 6.68 10.47 0.00 17.16 0.18 2 1 0 3 10.48 6.17 0.00 16.65 0.15 1 2 0 3 8.74 5.19 0.00 13.93 0.14 1 1 0 2 1.85 11.25 0.00 13.10 0.10 0 3 0 3 0.00 9.21 0.00 9.21 0.08 0 2 0 2 0.00 7.70 0.00 7.70 0.05 1 0 0 1 5.06 0.00 0.00 5.06 0.02 0 1 0 1 0.00 1.98 0.00 1.98 73.72 186 230 7 423 1,638.16 5,233.95 108.96 6,981.07 100.00 239 287 9 535 2,533.42 6,803.04 133.88 9,470.33 2020 3 1 2019 2020 13 20. 2019 ABS 10.77 5,036.34 3,375.12 189.85 1,471.38 10.13 4,738.06 2,098.56 161.86 2,477.64 5.89 2,754.61 442.79 20.00 2,291.82 5.02 2,346.55 1,455.00 74.95 816.61 4.62 2,160.52 1,070.65 312.99 776.87 3.78 1,769.37 717.58 10.00 1,041.79 3.26 1,524.24 629.09 87.12 808.03 2.17 1,013.47 347.95 280.32 385.19 1.96 916.44 436.07 131.29 349.08 1.78 834.47 420.74 105.12 308.60 1.74 812.92 448.05 92.29 272.58 1.50 703.17 515.89 48.40 138.87 1.32 618.09 369.81 24.60 223.68 1.21 565.39 504.75 14.80 45.84 1.19 555.58 459.70 54.80 41.08 1.01 470.28 241.07 114.31 114.90 0.97 452.24 298.84 105.14 48.26 0.97 451.54 419.64 31.90 0.00 0.92 428.80 329.12 64.30 35.38 0.78 365.50 168.62 94.00 102.89 0.74 346.91 239.83 8.00 99.07 0.65 304.09 204.65 22.00 77.44 0.60 280.96 196.56 74.40 10.00 0.48 225.13 189.68 5.00 30.45 0.43 203.06 162.60 16.30 24.16 0.35 164.10 94.00 70.10 0.00 0.34 157.28 115.76 17.00 24.52 0.31 144.49 112.84 22.63 9.02 0.30 139.19 80.14 1.00 58.05 0.27 127.84 76.80 3.00 48.04 0.26 121.73 83.68 31.82 6.23 0.21 96.00 70.50 25.50 0.00 0.18 84.84 66.10 18.06 0.69 0.15 71.20 64.20 7.00 0.00 0.15 70.77 40.67 30.10 0.00 0.15 68.38 41.90 13.00 13.48 0.15 68.14 47.24 15.90 5.00 0.14 66.49 9.32 52.00 5.18 0.11 52.88 51.82 0.00 1.06 0.01 5.40 0.00 0.00 5.40 0.01 5.20 0.00 0.00 5.20 66.96 31,321.64 16,697.34 2,450.83 12,173.47 100.00 46,777.15 25,443.53 3,588.99 17,744.62 2.4 26 19 2019 273 2018 35.85 2016 278 2015 542 26 2019 133 787.63 26.34 19 2.88 H2 2.74 2015 46.79 2018 21.85 2020 3 1 2019 2020 14 21. 2011-2019 86 65 97 158 542 278 245 201 273 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 22. 2011-2019 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 2011H1 2011H2 2012H1 2012H2 2013H1 2013H2 2014H1 2014H2 2015H1 2015H2 2016H1 2016H2 2017H1 2017H2 2018H1 2018H2 2019H1 2019H2 2.5 17Q1 18.77 19Q4 10.83 42.30 17Q1 13.89 19Q3 20.77 19Q4 2020 3 1 2019 2020 15 23. 2017Q1-2019Q4 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 0 4 8 12 16 20 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 19Q3 20 89.62 85.44 52.34 49.73 18Q4 24.10 26.96 13.49 7.73 26.61 16.44 14.78 18Q4 1.72 0.95 0.80 24. 2018Q4-2019Q3 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2020 3 1 2019 2020 16 3 3.1 2019Q4 3.72 19Q4 3.72 19Q3 19Q4 1.28 19Q3 0.05 19Q4 A 5.00 3.72 19Q3 3.51 25. 2018Q4-2019Q4 vs -4.1 -3.9 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 -3.1 -2.9 -2.7 -2.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 A 19Q4 0.56 0.38 0.17 0.06 0.03 0.2 0.11 26. 2019Q1-2019Q4 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2019 2019Q3 2019Q2 2019Q1 2020 3 1 2019 2020 17 3.2 2020 2019 2020 A 20 2015 A 1 2 9,818 1 6,998 40 2015 11 25 14,153 2015 7 24 2 2 3.85 1 3.04 27 2 4 2020 2 27 11,248 1 8.46 12 2016 1 6 A 27. 2020/01-2020/02 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2020/01/02 2020/01/03 2020/01/06 2020/01/07 2020/01/08 2020/01/09 2020/01/10 2020/01/13 2020/01/14 2020/01/15 2020/01/16 2020/01/17 2020/01/20 2020/01/21 2020/01/22 2020/01/23 2020/02/03 2020/02/04 2020/02/05 2020/02/06 2020/02/07 2020/02/10 2020/02/11 2020/02/12 2020/02/13 2020/02/14 2020/02/17 2020/02/18 2020/02/19 2020/02/20 2020/02/21 2020/02/24 2020/02/25 2020/02/26 2020/02/27 2020/02/28 2 9818 40 1 6998 37 28. 2020/01-2020/02 10,000 10,200 10,400 10,600 10,800 11,000 11,200 11,400 2020/01/02 2020/01/03 2020/01/06 2020/01/07 2020/01/08 2020/01/09 2020/01/10 2020/01/13 2020/01/14 2020/01/15 2020/01/16 2020/01/17 2020/01/20 2020/01/21 2020/01/22 2020/01/23 2020/02/03 2020/02/04 2020/02/05 2020/02/06 2020/02/07 2020/02/10 2020/02/11 2020/02/12 2020/02/13 2020/02/14 2020/02/17 2020/02/18 2020/02/19 2020/02/20 2020/02/21 2020/02/24 2020/02/25 2020/02/26 2020/02/27 8.46 1.74 2020 3 1 2019 2020 18 2020 2020 0.69 19.56 39.27 2020 0.77 23.88 47.90 81.81 29. 2020 2018 2019 2020E 4,116 5,580 6,000 7,000 8,000 0.031 0.029 0.026 0.027 0.028 623 788 761 922 1,093 IPO 1,375 2,533 2,787 3,040 3,293 3,270 1,603 3,206 4,008 4,809 35,944 46,777 46,777 49,116 51,455 4,286 5,334 5,601 5,867 6,134 IPO 55 101 111 122 132 18 9 18 22 26 185 267 254 267 280 258 377 383 411 438 112 105 128 134 140 370 483 512 545 578 9,030 9,153 9,500 10,500 11,500 9,701 8,499 7,649 8,074 8,499 1.15 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 215 464 450 488 525 28.00 33.00 30.00 33.00 35.00 300 -25.31 30.00 10.00 30.00 40.00 120.00 1.10 1.15 1.20 -7.05 31.88 13.30 26.39 36.80 800 1,222 1,384 1,544 1,671 148,175 120,363 114,345 120,363 126,381 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 275 275 274 313 354 379 374 374 393 412 2,663 3,605 3,756 4,205 4,633 25.02 34.15 33.00 35.00 37.00 666 1,231 1,239 1,472 1,714 41.04 84.77 0.69 19.56 39.27 30. 2020 2019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q1E 221 162 255 266 88 165 132 175 57 85 100 115 514 343 437 463 69 116 174 203 69 122 69 76 1,019 993 1,167 1,298 43.20 30.21 38.00 42.00 440 300 444 545 0.77 23.88 47.90 81.81 2020 3 1 2019 2020 19 3.3 1 Beta 2 2019 31. PB PE 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 600030.SH 23.40 2,643 1.85 1.74 1.63 1.52 30.20 20.80 18.41 16.10 601688.SH 18.55 1,574 1.48 1.38 1.32 1.26 30.41 20.27 17.91 15.72 600837.SH 14.21 1,406 1.39 1.30 1.24 1.18 31.36 16.74 14.48 12.52 601211.SH 17.00 1,441 1.23 1.19 1.14 1.0
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